First provide a summary of the paper, and then address the following criteria: Quality, clarity, originality and significance. The paper under review'Predictive Entropy Search for Efficient Global Optimization of Black-box Functions' presents an approach for Bayesian optimization that measures entropy in the posterior predictive distribution. The authors present a method named Predictive Entropy Search (PES) that is derived by a reparameterization of the expected information gain based on the symmetry of mutual information. The authors describe the posterior sampling, predictive entropy approximation and hyper-parameter learning steps of PES. The advantages of the proposed method are that it is more efficient and accurate than alternatives and that it allows to handle the hyper-parameters in a fully Bayesian way.

We propose a novel information-theoretic approach for Bayesian optimization called Predictive Entropy Search (PES). At each iteration, PES selects the next evaluation point that maximizes the expected information gained with respect to the global maximum. PES codifies this intractable acquisition function in terms of the expected reduction in the differential entropy of the predictive distribution. This reformulation allows PES to obtain approximations that are both more accurate and efficient than other alternatives such as Entropy Search (ES). Furthermore, PES can easily perform a fully Bayesian treatment of the model hyperparameters while ES cannot. We evaluate PES in both synthetic and real-world applications, including optimization problems in machine learning, finance, biotechnology, and robotics. We show that the increased accuracy of PES leads to significant gains in optimization performance.

Efficient global optimization is a widely used method for optimizing expensive black-box functions such as tuning hyperparameter, and designing new material, etc. Despite its popularity, less attention has been paid to analyzing the inherent hardness of the problem although, given its extensive use, it is important to understand the fundamental limits of efficient global optimization algorithms. In this paper, we study the worst-case complexity of the efficient global optimization problem and, in contrast to existing kernel-specific results, we derive a unified lower bound for the complexity of efficient global optimization in terms of the metric entropy of a ball in its corresponding reproducing kernel Hilbert space~(RKHS). Specifically, we show that if there exists a deterministic algorithm that achieves suboptimality gap smaller than $\epsilon$ for any function $f\in S$ in $T$ function evaluations, it is necessary that $T$ is at least $\Omega\left(\frac{\log\mathcal{N}(S(\mathcal{X}), 4\epsilon,\|\cdot\|_\infty)}{\log(\frac{R}{\epsilon})}\right)$, where $\mathcal{N}(\cdot,\cdot,\cdot)$ is the covering number, $S$ is the ball centered at $0$ with radius $R$ in the RKHS and $S(\mathcal{X})$ is the restriction of $S$ over the feasible set $\mathcal{X}$. Moreover, we show that this lower bound nearly matches the upper bound attained by non-adaptive search algorithms for the commonly used squared exponential kernel and the Mat\'ern kernel with a large smoothness parameter $\nu$, up to a replacement of $d/2$ by $d$ and a logarithmic term $\log\frac{R}{\epsilon}$. That is to say, our lower bound is nearly optimal for these kernels.

We propose a novel information-theoretic approach for Bayesian optimization called Predictive Entropy Search (PES). At each iteration, PES selects the next evaluation point that maximizes the expected information gained with respect to the global maximum. PES codifies this intractable acquisition function in terms of the expected reduction in the differential entropy of the predictive distribution. This reformulation allows PES to obtain approximations that are both more accurate and efficient than other alternatives such as Entropy Search (ES). Furthermore, PES can easily perform a fully Bayesian treatment of the model hyperparameters while ES cannot.